Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
AI Impacts
MARCH 1, 2023
Patrick Levermore, 1 March 2023 Summary This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI , analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to the median of the experts’ predictions. times further or closer than the expert forecasts.
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